The Government Actuary's Department (GAD) worked with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) on a proof-of-concept project exploring how uncertainty in vaccine development could affect the economic consequences of pandemic response decisions, the department reported on 21 October 2026.

GAD said it used actuarial modelling techniques to look at uncertainty in vaccine development, combining scientific expertise, economic evidence and actuarial analysis. The results indicated how development timescales and the number of vaccine candidates could influence economic outcomes, and pointed to the importance of diversification and the risks of relying on too few vaccine candidates.

According to GAD, the project shows how actuarial analysis can complement scientific and economic evidence, helping decision-makers explore possible outcomes, test assumptions and better understand risk. Michael West, Deputy Chief Economist at UKHSA, said GAD had delivered a useful and clearly presented piece of analysis within a challenging timescale, adding that the work produced a valuable output for the agency.