A study published on Sept. 8, 2026, in the journal Earth’s Future modeled future access to food, water and energy, projecting that burdens could vary widely by region and income group by 2050. MIT co-author Jennifer Morris said lower-income groups face much worse potential insecurity in many modeled outcomes.

Across 3,735 scenarios, the modeling projected that in southern Africa the poorest 10 percent by income could spend 49.6 percent of income on food in 2050, compared with 5.5 percent for the wealthiest 10 percent. Projected food burdens for the bottom 10 percent were 48.4 percent in West Africa and 42.5 percent in East Africa. In southern Africa, the lowest-income group spent about 20 percent of income on food in 2015, with 2050 projections ranging from 25 to 65 percent.

Residential energy burden projections also varied by income, reaching 18.9 percent for the lowest bracket in parts of the Middle East versus 1.7 percent for the highest. Co-author Gi Joo Kim said the method identifies conditions producing different outcomes rather than predicting one likely future.

The figures are model projections, not observations of 2050 conditions, and the authors stress uncertainties. The research was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Stanford University and the National Research Foundation of Korea.