An intensifying El Niño is driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns, from drought to deluge, and affecting agriculture, fisheries and food production, the World Meteorological Organization said in a report published on 16 October 2026, World Food Day. WMO scientist Wilfran Moufouma Okia noted that impacts vary between regions, within regions and by season, and are shaped by existing environmental conditions, rainfall cycles and other climate drivers.

In the Greater Horn of Africa, an ICPAC outlook issued in May forecast below-normal rainfall for June–September 2026 in parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan, and ICPAC data later showed persistent deficits, soil-moisture shortfalls and vegetation stress. A later ICPAC outlook issued on 19 August forecast wetter-than-normal conditions for the October–December rains in equatorial and southern parts, bringing both benefits for pasture and water and heightened flood and disease risks. Forecasts through SASCOF correctly predicted an increased likelihood of below-normal monsoon rainfall in South Asia, with deficits observed in parts of India and yield impacts not yet known.

The report said central and eastern tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were forecast to reach record levels during October–November–December 2026, and that anchoveta fishing in Peru had been suspended to protect stocks. It added that the past eleven years have been the warmest on record, so El Niño now amplifies temperatures against a higher baseline.