The Greater Horn of Africa was expected to be warmer and wetter than usual in the last quarter of 2026 as El Niño strengthened, according to a WMO report published on 19 August 2026. The seasonal outlook, issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) with regional national meteorological and hydrological services, put a 90% chance on enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia and north-eastern Kenya. It also indicated a high chance of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm in parts of central to southern Somalia, central Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania.

October to December is a critical rainfall period for the equatorial and southern parts of the region, contributing up to 70% of total annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and up to 40% in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda, the report said. Above-average rainfall was expected to improve pasture and water availability for livestock, but excessive rain substantially raised flood risk, including loss of life, crop destruction, infrastructure damage, disease outbreaks and disrupted access to health and nutrition services, according to an accompanying report from the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group. Warmer-than-average temperatures were most likely in the region's east.

The outlook was issued at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum held in Kigali on 17–18 August. ICPAC named 1997 and 2023 as analogue years. WMO said its next El Niño Update was due on 3 September.