A South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) seasonal outlook, reported by the World Meteorological Organization on 14 October 2026, indicated that normal to above-normal rainfall was likely during October–December over northwestern and parts of eastern and southern South Asia, including island nations. Below-normal rainfall was likely over most parts of central and southern peninsular South Asia and some parts of eastern South Asia, according to the outlook covering Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

The outlook projected normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most of the region. It cited very strong El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, with above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and across most of the Indian Ocean. Model forecasts pointed to a continued likelihood of very strong El Niño and neutral IOD conditions during the season.

The assessment noted that southern India, Sri Lanka and Maldives receive significant October–December rainfall critical for agriculture, while northeastern parts including Afghanistan also receive a sizable share of annual precipitation in these months. Experts from the nine countries' meteorological services and partner institutions contributed to the consensus outlook.